MARKET EFFECT

ECONOMIC INDICATOR

12-MONTH TREND

April 2019

The model continues to correctly show that there is no recession yet in the very immediate future as the manufacturing sector continues to expand. Economic indicators contributing to the upward momentum include low unemployment, retail sales, manufacturing, durable goods, and a flattening of the federal funds rate. There is some weakness in new housing permits data and the 10-year treasure rate, but overall, the probability is still greater of the market going up and hitting new highs rather than going into recession.

January 2019

Due to the government shutdown, some economic data from the previous month is missing before the start of the new month. Unfortunately, the automated forecasting algorithm was not equipped to handle this situation which is why the end of the month forecast is off. The good news is that in spite of the recent market correction, the model continues to correctly show that there is no recession yet in the very immediate future especially with the manufacturing sector continuing to expand. We do see some weakness with certain economic indicators, but overall the probability is greater of the market going higher than going into recession. 

Unemployment Rate
Retail Index
ISM Index
M2 Money Supply
Manufacturer’s New Orders
New Housing Permits
10-Year Treasury Rate
Federal Funds Rate
Consumer Price Index
Volatility Index

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