January 2019

Due to the government shutdown, some economic data from the previous month is missing before the start of the new month. Unfortunately, the automated forecasting algorithm was not equipped to handle this situation which is why the end of the month forecast is off. The good news is that inspite of the recent market correction, the model continues to correctly show that there is no recession yet in the very immediate future especially with the manufacturing sector continuing to expand. We do see some weakness with certain economic inidicators, but overall the probability is greater of the market going higher than going into recession.

September 2018:

As predicted from March, the algorithm correctly indicated that the market was going though a correction and that the likelihood of recession was low. On August 21st, the S&P 500 hit a new high. Although the Risk of Recession continues to move higher, market indicators show that momentum remains strong with the S&P 500 having a higher probability of making new highs rather than moving into a recession in the near term.


Unemployment Rate
Retail Index
ISM Index
M2 Money Supply
Manufacturer’s New Orders
New Housing Permits
10-Year Treasury Rate
Federal Funds Rate
Consumer Price Index
Volatility Index

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