S&P 500 Model (Actual Vs Predicted)

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Performance Record

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Date

Predicted
Close

Actual
Close

Predicted
Direction

Risk of
Recession

 

Nov 30, 2018 2774.93 2760.17
80.2%
 
Oct 31, 2018 3022.64 2711.74
79%
 
Sep 28, 2018 2934.84 2913.98
85.2%
 
Aug 31, 2018 2882.05 2901.52
85%
 
Jul 31, 2018 2835.62 2816.29
82.9%
 
Jun 29, 2018 2796.62 2718.37
80.1%
 
May 31, 2018 2655.42 2705.27
80.2%
 
Apr 30, 2018 2706.53 2648.05
78.8%
 
Mar 29, 2018 2803.17 2640.87
78.7%
 
Feb 28, 2018 2891.02 2713.83
81.5%
 
Jan 31, 2018 2742.61 2823.81
85%
 
Dec 29, 2017 2721.63 2673.61
80.4%
 
Nov 30, 2017 2581.53 2647.58
79.9%
 
Oct 31, 2017 2579.07 2575.26
77.6%
 
Sep 29, 2017 2506.4 2519.36
76%
 
Aug 31, 2017 2529.57 2471.65
74.5%
 
Jul 31, 2017 2444.02 2470.3
74.8%
 
Jun 30, 2017 2455.56 2423.41
73.5%
 
May 31, 2017 2441.62 2411.8
73.3%
 
Apr 28, 2017 2436.32 2384.2
72.7%
 
Mar 31, 2017 2439.43 2362.72
72.2%
 
Feb 28, 2017 2345.22 2363.64
72.7%
 
Jan 31, 2017 2264.21 2278.87
69.6%
 
Dec 30, 2016 2199.44 2238.83
68.3%
 
Nov 30, 2016 2135.58 2198.81
66.8%
 
Oct 31, 2016 2202.62 2126.15
64%
 
Sep 30, 2016 2129.11 2168.27
66.5%
 
Aug 31, 2016 2114.49 2170.95
67%
 
Jul 29, 2016 2121.01 2173.6
67.8%
 
Jun 30, 2016 2091.8 2098.86
64.8%
 
May 31, 2016 2078.68 2096.95
65.3%
 
Apr 29, 2016 2049.23 2065.3
64.3%
 
Mar 31, 2016 2030.05 2059.74
64.8%
 
Feb 29, 2016 1942.35 1932.23
58.6%
 
Jan 29, 2016 2090.03 1940.24
59.6%
 
Dec 31, 2015 2130.7 2043.94
66.1%
 
Nov 30, 2015 2007.8 2080.41
68.3%
 
Oct 30, 2015 1849.9 2079.36
69%
 
Sep 30, 2015 1955.12 1920.03
61.2%
 
Aug 31, 2015 2025.25 1972.18
64.4%
 
Jul 31, 2015 2096.16 2103.84
71.2%
 
Jun 30, 2015 2115.65 2063.11
69.7%
 
May 29, 2015 2159.73 2107.39
72.1%
 
Apr 30, 2015 2125.78 2085.51
71.4%
 
Mar 31, 2015 2089.85 2067.89
71%
 
Feb 27, 2015 2063.13 2104.5
72.8%
 
Jan 30, 2015 2007.59 1994.99
68.6%
 
Dec 31, 2014 2065.52 2058.9
72.2%
 
Nov 28, 2014 2054.83 2067.56
73.3%
 
Oct 31, 2014 2028.11 2018.05
71.4%
 
Sep 30, 2014 2015.98 1972.29
69.6%
 
Aug 29, 2014 2011.71 2003.37
71.4%
 
Jul 31, 2014 1962.06 1930.67
68%
 
Jun 30, 2014 2003.03 1960.23
70%
 
May 30, 2014 1987.88 1923.57
68.6%
 
Apr 30, 2014 1941.45 1883.95
67.1%
 
Mar 31, 2014 1884.49 1872.34
67%
 
Feb 28, 2014 1859.24 1859.45
66.7%
 
Jan 31, 2014 1818.55 1782.59
63.2%
 
Dec 31, 2013 1855.08 1848.36
67.3%
 
Nov 29, 2013 1763.5 1805.81
65.8%
 
Oct 31, 2013 1718.83 1756.54
63.2%
 
Sep 30, 2013 1696.84 1681.55
59.6%
 
Aug 30, 2013 1671.82 1632.97
56.9%
 
Jul 31, 2013 1657.41 1685.73
60.9%
 
Jun 28, 2013 1596.67 1606.28
56.2%
 
May 31, 2013 1571.09 1630.74
58.3%
 
Apr 30, 2013 1558.88 1597.57
56.4%
 
Mar 28, 2013 1546.5 1569.19
54.8%
 
Feb 28, 2013 1527.52 1514.68
51.8%
 
Jan 31, 2013 1493.22 1498.11
50.4%
 
Dec 31, 2012 1458.28 1426.19
44.8%
 
Nov 30, 2012 1460.71 1416.18
45.4%
 
Oct 31, 2012 1437.36 1412.16
45.8%
 
Sep 28, 2012 1423.27 1440.67
48.9%
 
Aug 31, 2012 1363.12 1406.58
47%
 
Jul 31, 2012 1348.04 1379.32
45.6%
 
Jun 29, 2012 1350.34 1362.16
45%
 
May 31, 2012 1394.01 1310.33
41.1%
 
Apr 30, 2012 1448.06 1397.91
49.3%
 
Mar 30, 2012 1410.67 1408.47
50.8%
 
Feb 29, 2012 1405.29 1365.68
47.8%
 
Jan 31, 2012 1337.82 1312.41
43.3%
 
Dec 30, 2011 1226.57 1257.6
39%
 
Nov 30, 2011 1164.69 1246.96
38.4%
 
Oct 31, 2011 1173.66 1253.3
39.6%
 
Sep 30, 2011 1124.56 1131.42
26.4%
 
Aug 31, 2011 1230.12 1218.89
36.9%
 
Jul 29, 2011 1311.03 1292.28
46.9%
 
Jun 30, 2011 1364.5 1320.64
51.8%
 
May 31, 2011 1403.43 1345.2
55%
 
Apr 29, 2011 1412.02 1363.61
57.2%
 
Mar 31, 2011 1377.74 1325.83
54.7%
 
Feb 28, 2011 1360.01 1327.22
55.4%
 
Jan 31, 2011 1296.91 1286.12
52.4%
 
Dec 31, 2010 1261.37 1257.64
50.3%
 
Nov 30, 2010 1237.72 1180.55
43.2%
 
Oct 29, 2010 1172.08 1183.26
43.9%
 
Sep 30, 2010 1085.99 1141.2
40.1%
 
Aug 31, 2010 1005.8 1049.33
29.6%
 
Jul 30, 2010 1053.63 1101.6
36.7%
 
Jun 30, 2010 1058.07 1030.71
27.9%
 
May 28, 2010 1138.32 1089.41
35.7%
 
Apr 30, 2010 1173.62 1186.69
47.3%
 
Mar 31, 2010 1191.22 1169.43
45.7%
 
Feb 26, 2010 1131.64 1104.49
38.6%
 
Jan 29, 2010 1102.72 1073.87
35.7%
 
Dec 31, 2009 1107.35 1115.1
39.9%
 
Nov 30, 2009 1088.24 1095.63
37.7%
 
Oct 30, 2009 1077.78 1036.19
30.9%
 
Sep 30, 2009 1090.93 1057.08
34%
 
Aug 31, 2009 1095.61 1020.62
29.4%
 
Jul 31, 2009 1009.16 987.48
24.6%
 
Jun 30, 2009 965.94 919.32
14.1%
 
May 29, 2009 846.55 919.14
14.3%
 
Apr 30, 2009 765.42 872.81
7.5%
 
Mar 31, 2009 732.08 797.87
0%
 
Feb 27, 2009 684.98 735.09
0%
 
Jan 30, 2009 733.28 825.88
3.1%
 
Dec 31, 2008 773 903.25
21.6%
 
Nov 28, 2008 836.31 896.24
24.2%
 
Oct 31, 2008 973.09 968.75
38.5%
 
Sep 30, 2008 1151.4 1166.36
67.7%
 
Aug 29, 2008 1283.89 1282.83
80.9%
 
Jul 31, 2008 1323.5 1267.38
79.5%
 
Jun 30, 2008 1327.57 1280
81.4%
 
May 30, 2008 1377.89 1400.38
91.8%
 
Apr 30, 2008 1329.84 1385.59
91%
 
Mar 31, 2008 1347.78 1322.7
86.2%
 
Feb 29, 2008 1299.44 1330.63
87.9%
 
Jan 31, 2008 1399.83 1378.55
93.1%
 
Dec 31, 2007 1508.04 1468.36
100%
 
Nov 30, 2007 1520.29 1481.14
83.2%
 
Oct 31, 2007 1542.78 1549.38
87.3%
 
Sep 28, 2007 1506.1 1526.75
86.2%
 
Aug 31, 2007 1487.37 1473.99
83.6%
 
Jul 31, 2007 1508.15 1455.27
83.3%
 
Jun 29, 2007 1525.1 1503.35
86.3%
 
May 31, 2007 1520.87 1530.62
88.1%
 
Apr 30, 2007 1457.93 1482.37
85.8%
 
Mar 30, 2007 1426.84 1420.86
83%
 
Feb 28, 2007 1434.47 1406.82
82.6%
 
Jan 31, 2007 1459.04 1438.24
84.7%
 
Dec 29, 2006 1449.24 1418.3
83.9%
 
Nov 30, 2006 1414.78 1400.63
83.4%
 
Oct 31, 2006 1373.61 1377.94
82.5%
 
Sep 29, 2006 1324.33 1335.85
80.5%
 
Aug 31, 2006 1280.61 1303.82
78.8%
 
Jul 31, 2006 1275.01 1276.66
77.2%
 
Jun 30, 2006 1287.58 1270.2
77.2%
 
May 31, 2006 1290.4 1270.09
77.7%
 
Apr 28, 2006 1315.26 1310.61
80.7%
 
Mar 31, 2006 1302.03 1294.87
80%
 
Feb 28, 2006 1302.47 1280.66
79.2%
 
Jan 31, 2006 1291.12 1280.08
79.6%
 
Dec 30, 2005 1256.44 1248.29
77.9%
 
Nov 30, 2005 1225.49 1249.48
78.3%
 
Oct 31, 2005 1229.13 1207.01
75.5%
 
Sep 30, 2005 1249.46 1228.81
77.6%
 
Aug 31, 2005 1232.81 1220.33
77.4%
 
Jul 29, 2005 1190.86 1234.18
78.8%
 
Jun 30, 2005 1177.13 1191.33
76.1%
 
May 31, 2005 1198.68 1191.5
76.6%
 
Apr 29, 2005 1156.02 1156.85
74.2%
 
Mar 31, 2005 1225.35 1180.59
76.2%
 
Feb 28, 2005 1189.13 1203.6
78%
 
Jan 31, 2005 1169.22 1181.27
76.5%
 
Dec 31, 2004 1198.05 1211.92
78.9%
 
Nov 30, 2004 1146.43 1173.82
76.3%
 
Oct 29, 2004 1100.98 1130.2
73.2%
 
Sep 30, 2004 1118.46 1114.58
72.3%
 
Aug 31, 2004 1097.26 1104.24
71.9%
 
Jul 30, 2004 1100.89 1101.72
72.1%
 
Jun 30, 2004 1139.55 1140.84
75.5%
 
May 28, 2004 1136.55 1120.68
73.9%
 
Apr 30, 2004 1130.6 1107.3
74.1%
 
Mar 31, 2004 1155.28 1126.21
76.2%
 
Feb 27, 2004 1173.43 1144.94
78.2%
 
Jan 30, 2004 1150.16 1131.13
77.7%
 
Dec 31, 2003 1097.09 1111.92
76.2%
 
Nov 28, 2003 1082.1 1058.2
71.6%
 
Oct 31, 2003 1058.38 1050.71
71%
 
Sep 30, 2003 997.91 995.97
65.6%
 
Aug 29, 2003 1006.68 1008.01
66.4%
 
Jul 31, 2003 1018.23 990.31
65.5%
 
Jun 30, 2003 1008.07 974.5
64.6%
 
May 30, 2003 953.18 963.59
64.2%
 
Apr 30, 2003 918.24 916.92
60.2%
 
Mar 31, 2003 819.38 848.18
52.2%
 
Feb 28, 2003 868.12 841.15
51.6%
 
Jan 31, 2003 877.32 855.7
54.3%
 
Dec 31, 2002 895.43 879.82
58%
 
Nov 29, 2002 862.03 936.31
64.9%
 
Oct 31, 2002 777.63 885.76
60%
 
Sep 30, 2002 795.95 815.28
51.7%
 
Aug 30, 2002 837.75 916.07
6.5%
 
Jul 31, 2002 910.6 911.62
7%
 
Jun 28, 2002 1001.99 989.82
23.6%
 
May 31, 2002 1053.64 1067.14
37.1%
 
Apr 30, 2002 1145.57 1076.92
39.6%
 
Mar 28, 2002 1179.95 1147.39
49.3%
 
Feb 28, 2002 1166.41 1106.73
44%
 
Jan 31, 2002 1130.9 1130.2
48.1%
 
Dec 31, 2001 1044.43 1148.08
51%
 
Nov 30, 2001 987.75 1139.45
51.4%
 
Oct 31, 2001 979.49 1059.78
41.5%
 
Sep 28, 2001 1073.05 1040.94
38.2%
 
Aug 31, 2001 1168.82 1133.58
54.5%
 
Jul 31, 2001 1246.53 1211.23
64.7%
 
Jun 29, 2001 1230.77 1224.38
66.9%
 
May 31, 2001 1233.42 1255.82
71.3%
 
Apr 30, 2001 1179.38 1249.46
70.7%
 
Mar 30, 2001 1151.56 1160.33
62.3%
 
Feb 28, 2001 1217.31 1239.94
72.6%
 
Jan 31, 2001 1265.37 1366.01
85.3%
 
Dec 29, 2000 1279.03 1320.28
82.5%
 
Nov 30, 2000 1364.3 1314.95
83.1%
 
Oct 31, 2000 1473.64 1429.4
92.7%
 
Sep 29, 2000 1485.22 1436.51
93.6%
 
Aug 31, 2000 1467.22 1517.68
100%
 
Jul 31, 2000 1434.9 1430.83
100%
 
Jun 30, 2000 1450.99 1454.6
100%
 
May 31, 2000 1431.26 1420.6
100%
 
Apr 28, 2000 1469.59 1452.43
100%
 
Mar 31, 2000 1438.04 1498.58
100%
 
Feb 29, 2000 1424.13 1366.42
100%
 
Jan 31, 2000 1437.58 1394.46
100%
 
Dec 31, 1999 1445.04 1469.25
100%
 
Nov 30, 1999 1361.9 1388.91
100%
 
Oct 29, 1999 1321.75 1362.93
100%
 
Sep 30, 1999 1328.97 1282.71
100%
 
Aug 31, 1999 1394.82 1320.41
100%
 
Jul 30, 1999 1396.36 1328.72
100%
 
Jun 30, 1999 1395.93 1372.71
100%
 
May 28, 1999 1346.03 1301.84
100%
 
Apr 30, 1999 1352.2 1335.18
100%
 
Mar 31, 1999 1330.2 1286.37
100%
 
Feb 26, 1999 1340.17 1238.33
100%
 
Jan 29, 1999 1352.38 1279.64
100%
 
Dec 31, 1998 1226.19 1229.23
100%
 
Nov 30, 1998 1114.3 1163.63
100%
 
Oct 30, 1998 1010.51 1098.67
100%
 
Sep 30, 1998 1009.36 1017.01
97.1%
 
Aug 31, 1998 1024.13 957.28
93.4%
 
Jul 31, 1998 1143.46 1120.67
100%
 
Jun 30, 1998 1169.76 1133.84
100%
 
May 29, 1998 1151.74 1090.82
100%
 
Apr 30, 1998 1132.78 1111.75
100%
 
Mar 31, 1998 1096.03 1101.75
100%
 
Feb 27, 1998 1043.87 1049.34
100%
 
Jan 30, 1998 994.53 980.28
98%
 
Dec 31, 1997 1020.42 970.43
97.7%
 
Nov 28, 1997 981.94 955.4
96.9%
 
Oct 31, 1997 967.69 914.62
94.2%
 
Sep 30, 1997 991.02 947.28
97.1%
 
Aug 29, 1997 958.48 899.47
93.7%
 
Jul 31, 1997 928.33 954.31
98.5%
 
Jun 30, 1997 868.03 885.14
93.5%
 
May 30, 1997 833.66 848.28
90.6%
 
Apr 30, 1997 800.24 801.34
86.4%
 
Mar 31, 1997 782 757.12
82%
 
Feb 28, 1997 807.33 790.82
86%
 
Jan 31, 1997 780.84 786.16
85.7%
 
Dec 31, 1996 758.39 740.74
81.1%
 
Nov 29, 1996 751.02 757.02
83.4%
 
Oct 31, 1996 699.59 705.27
77.8%
 
Sep 30, 1996 679.31 687.33
75.8%
 
Aug 30, 1996 672.21 651.99
71.1%
 
Jul 31, 1996 670.97 639.95
69.5%
 
Jun 28, 1996 680.13 670.63
74.3%
 
May 31, 1996 674.37 669.12
74.4%
 
Apr 30, 1996 664.87 654.17
72.6%
 
Mar 29, 1996 655.67 645.5
71.6%
 
Feb 29, 1996 649.96 640.43
71.5%
 
Jan 31, 1996 640.82 636.02
71.2%
 
Dec 29, 1995 623.85 615.93
68.6%
 
Nov 30, 1995 611.4 605.37
67.1%
 
Oct 31, 1995 599.9 581.5
63.3%
 
Sep 29, 1995 601.24 584.41
64.1%
 
Aug 31, 1995 586.38 561.88
60.4%
 
Jul 31, 1995 576.8 562.06
61%
 
Jun 30, 1995 557.38 544.75
58.2%
 
May 31, 1995 536.43 533.4
56.7%
 
Apr 28, 1995 508.04 514.71
53.5%
 
Mar 31, 1995 476.94 500.71
50.6%
 
Feb 28, 1995 473.13 487.39
47.5%
 
Jan 31, 1995 464.57 470.42
43.1%
 
Dec 30, 1994 459.37 459.27
40.3%
 
Nov 30, 1994 453.87 453.69
38.7%
 
Oct 31, 1994 458.92 472.35
43.8%
 
Sep 30, 1994 459.09 462.71
41.2%
 
Aug 31, 1994 467.16 475.49
44.6%
 
Jul 29, 1994 450.56 458.26
39.9%
 
Jun 30, 1994 442.08 444.27
36.2%
 
May 31, 1994 445.37 456.5
39.3%
 
Apr 29, 1994 448.21 450.91
38.1%
 
Mar 31, 1994 452.25 445.77
36.6%
 
Feb 28, 1994 473.67 467.14
42.7%
 
Jan 31, 1994 477.24 481.61
46.5%
 
Dec 31, 1993 470.63 466.45
42.6%
 
Nov 30, 1993 468.86 461.79
41.5%
 

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